The U.S. healthcare workforce shortage is expected to intensify through 2040, potentially increasing patient costs, appointment wait times and pressure on existing clinicians. An analysis from healthcare education company Covista estimates that coordinated workforce and care-delivery interventions could close 92% of the projected gap.
More than 108 million Americans currently live in primary care provider shortage areas, while burnout and an aging workforce continue to contribute to clinician departures. Covista estimates workforce shortages already cost patients approximately $430 annually through overtime, temporary staffing and increased emergency department use. Without intervention, that figure could reach around $1,250 per person by 2040.
“This shortage is real, and Americans are feeling it,” Steve Beard, chairman and CEO of Covista, said. “We need to invest in capacity for the people who want to do this work, and pair that with innovations in care delivery.”
Covista identified several approaches for reducing the projected shortage. Expanding opportunities for non-traditional students, including adult learners and career changers, could narrow the gap by 7%, while increasing medical education capacity could address approximately one-quarter of it. Improving retention by reducing burnout and incentivizing clinicians to remain in their roles could mitigate around 25%.
Technology could also play a significant role. AI tools designed to automate and streamline administrative tasks could address up to 37% of the projected shortage. However, improved identification of care gaps and expanded access could increase appointment demand and clinician workloads, potentially offsetting efficiency gains by approximately 18%.
A greater emphasis on primary and preventive care could reduce the projected shortage by another 13%, according to the analysis, by shifting resources toward preventing illness rather than primarily responding after patients become sick.
“Technology can offer efficiencies; it can’t do the job. Our focus has to be building tools that free up our clinicians to do the thing they love the most: caring for patients,” Michael Betz, Covista’s chief growth and innovation officer and president of Walden University, said.
Covista estimates that closing workforce gaps could reduce specialist wait times by 20%, while addressing nursing and physician shortages could also improve mortality and life expectancy outcomes.
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