McKinsey & Company has released its 2027 U.S. healthcare outlook, forecasting significant changes in industry profitability as artificial intelligence (AI), reimbursement pressures, and shifting care delivery models reshape the sector. Overall healthcare EBITDA is projected to grow at a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2030, although growth is expected to remain constrained through 2027.
Healthcare services and technology (HST) is emerging as a principal growth segment, with enterprise data and analytics platforms expected to achieve annual revenue growth exceeding 11%, followed by core software platforms at more than 10%. Generative and agentic AI could contribute an additional one to four percentage points of annual revenue growth, while automation is expected to reduce demand for traditional administrative outsourcing services.
AI adoption is becoming increasingly widespread, with 92% of surveyed healthcare executives reporting implementations or active proofs of concept. However, financial returns remain uneven: 38% of organizations with deployed solutions have achieved measurable positive returns, while another 38% anticipate positive outcomes without having formally quantified them.
Meanwhile, 74% of healthcare organizations intend to obtain AI capabilities externally, including 48% through strategic partnerships and 26% through commercial software purchases. Multi-agent AI workflows are also gaining traction, with 74% of healthcare leaders implementing or evaluating these technologies.
Traditional healthcare segments face contrasting financial trajectories. Payer EBITDA declined from $62 billion in 2023 to $9 billion in 2025, reflecting rising medical costs and reimbursement challenges. McKinsey projects recovery to $84.5 billion by 2030, although Affordable Care Act subsidy expirations and Medicaid enrollment reductions could constrain near-term profitability.
Provider EBITDA recovered to $369 billion in 2025, but hospitals face renewed margin pressures and accelerating migration toward outpatient care. Ambulatory surgery center EBITDA is forecast to grow 6.7% annually, compared with 3.7% for acute hospitals.
The pharmacy value chain is projected to expand from $97 billion in 2025 to $138 billion by 2030, supported by specialty pharmacy growth and evolving reimbursement structures.
Overall, McKinsey's projections indicate continued capital reallocation toward technology-enabled services, outpatient delivery, and specialized pharmacy operations.
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